Philippine economic growth would likely remain below its potential of at least six percent until the end of the Marcos Jr. administration, according to the latest forecasts by the World Bank.
Documents on the latest $800-million Philippines Growth and Jobs Development Policy Loan (DPL) 1, approved by the Washington-based multilateral lender last week, showed a projected 4.6- percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the country in 2026, inching up from the post-pandemic-low of 4.4 percent in 2025. This forecast is below the government’s downgraded five- to six-percent growth target for the year.
For 2027, the World Bank expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.3 percent, which would also be lower than next year’s downscaled 5.5- to 6.5-percent goal.
By the time President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. steps down and turns over to a new administration in 2028, World Bank projections showed 5.5-percent GDP growth, still below the six- to seven-percent target.
“The growth outlook remains moderate over the near term, with activity expected to remain subdued in 2026 before gradually strengthening… The impact of the government’s anti-corruption efforts and a significantly lower infrastructure budget in 2026 is expected to weigh on public investment,” the World Bank said.
The lender added that a smaller statistical carry-over into 2026 signals weaker initial momentum, with growth projected to average 5.2 percent in 2026 to 2028, driven by recovering private domestic demand amid easing inflation and financing conditions.
“Private consumption is expected to benefit from stable labor income and improved confidence, while private investment gradually strengthens alongside improved credit conditions and a normalization of public capital spending. External demand, particularly for electronics and artificial intelligence (AI)-related exports, is projected to remain supportive, although global trade uncertainty presents downside risks,” the document said.
